ABCP

Excerpts from a member email and a YouTube link, appropos for the occasion.

So, Purdy Crawford, prominent Bay street lawyer, and chairman of the Pan-Canadian committee, is now conducting a whirlwind, cross-country, dog-and-pony show selling The Proposal.

If the plan fails to get the go-ahead, retail investors "get damn little," Mr. Crawford said yesterday. "That's not a threat. It's a reality."

Mr. Crawford calls this the 'art of the possible'.

Now the media coverage of ABCP retail investors has become a bit of a frenzy.

It has become hard to keep up with it all. Some respected (or at least widely syndicated) columnists have have even started to write columns and offer opinions on the topic.

There has been a remarkable twist to the story. Each noteholder has a vote on the bankruptcy. By most accounts, there are some 1400 retail noteholders that 'own' only $270 million of this paper, out of $33 billion that is frozen. Each of these noteholders has a vote. Most of this bad ABCP debt is held by big players in Canada's financial community. The retail investors outnumber the big guys 15:1.

Collectively, this means creditors that are owed less than 1% of the debt could scupper the $33 billion Pan-Canadian barge. The banks will not like this. The country's largest pension fund will not like this. Certain investment dealers across the country should look for a new line of work.

The barge would sink, and the members of the committee would have to demonstrate that they know how to swim.

Things have changed but remain the same. Accounts are still frozen and no one knows what they are worth BUT the Committee has come up with a proposal.

Here is a suggested introductory letter that the committee might consider sending to ABCP retail investors, in the spirit of full disclosure and transparency.

(Warning - the following paragraphs contain examples of extreme sarcasm or satire, reader discretion is advised.)

There has been an explosion of news in recent days on the ABCP issue, at least compared to what we are used to.

Another deadline was missed by the committee, but they have promised to file something in court on Monday. In essence, it's a bankruptcy proceeding.

They are proposing to swap the short term notes, most of which have matured at least 5 months ago, into long term notes that will mature in 8 years. After fees are deducted, noteholders may get all their principal back.

The Big Banks provide a credit facility. It is not a guarantee, but a way of limiting their losses. One of the reasons that there is no deal do date is that some of Canada's Banks have been reluctant to sign on.

We have also got the attention of the federal politicians. The Federal Finance Committee appears set to hold at least 12 hours of hearings on the ABCP crisis and intends to hear from 'severely affected Canadians'.

I have a friend who has an RRSP. He is self employed. This RRSP is his pension.

Last July he sold the remaining stocks in the plan and directed all funds be placed in a safe, short term, money market fund like T-Bills

His full service broker at Canaccord Capital purchased a 30 day note that paid a competitive rate of interest.

It's highly rated AAA paper, as good as cash

Not long after, and much to his surprise, he discovered he had purchased Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP). The markets froze Aug 13, 2007.

More than 7 months later he has not seen a dime. There is a chance he never will. The account is frozen. He cannot cash it in, he cannot borrow against it. At the present time, it is worthless.